DCF Wizard

Step-by-step intrinsic value (FCF DCF). Swipe → or use Next/Back.

Scale: Billions

High

Step 1 of 9Auto-advance

Step 1 — Market price

Ticker

Load fundamentals (Price, FCF₀, Net Debt, Shares) from Financial Modeling Prep. US equities only.

Source: FMP

Fundamentals are historical / trailing. Assumptions (growth, discount rate, terminal multiple) remain yours. Fundamentals sourced from FMP (Starter plan). If loading fails, wait a moment and try again.

Or enter the current market price per share manually. This is the number you see in your broker app (e.g. 245.74).

Market price per share

USD

The trading price of 1 share right now.

You only scale company-wide numbers (FCF, Net Debt, Shares). Price is always per-share.

Step 2 — Starting Free Cash Flow (FCF₀)

Enter the company's Free Cash Flow (FCF) for the last 12 months (TTM) or last fiscal year.

FCF₀ (TTM or last FY)

USD (Billions)

DIY: from cash flow statement → FCF ≈ Cash From Operations (CFO) − CapEx.

Tip: Keep the same scale for all company-wide numbers. If you input FCF in Billions, also input Net Debt and Shares in Billions.

Step 3 — Forecast assumptions (growth + years)

Choose how long you forecast explicit cash flows and how fast FCF grows during that period.

Forecast years (N)

Typical: 5–10 years. Longer = more uncertainty.

FCF growth during forecast (g)

As decimal: 0.06 = 6% growth per year.

This is a simplified single-stage forecast. Later we can add 2-stage growth (high-growth then mature).

Step 4 — Terminal value (Exit multiple)

The terminal value estimates what the business is worth at the end of year N using a multiple of FCF in year N.

Terminal multiple (× FCF in year N)

Example: 15 means Terminal Value = FCF(N) × 15.

Terminal value often dominates DCF results. Be conservative.

Step 5 — Discount rate (required return)

This is the rate used to discount future cash flows back to today (often WACC or required return). It implicitly includes the risk-free rate + risk premium.

Discount rate (r)

As decimal: 0.10 = 10%. Higher rate → lower intrinsic value.

For a stable large-cap, many use ~8–12% as a starting range (depends on risk).

Step 6 — Convert EV → Equity → Intrinsic per share

A DCF of FCF usually gives Enterprise Value (EV). To get equity value, subtract Net Debt. Then divide by diluted shares to get intrinsic value per share.

Net Debt (Debt − Cash)

USD (Billions)

From balance sheet: Total Debt minus Cash & Equivalents. If unknown: 0 (rough).

Diluted shares outstanding

Billions

Weighted average diluted shares. Units follow the selected scale (e.g. 15.5 with 'Billions' = 15.5 bn shares). Example: Apple ≈ 15–16 bn.

Results

Over/Undervalued: -55.5%

Intrinsic value per share

$109

Equity Value / diluted shares

Enterprise value (EV)

$1,694,427,284,376

PV forecast + PV terminal

PV of forecast FCFs

$448,028,090,083

Sum of discounted FCFs (years 1..N)

PV of terminal value

$1,246,399,194,292

Discounted terminal value

Equity value

$1,694,427,284,376

EV − Net Debt

Terminal value (undiscounted)

$2,007,338,366,400

FCF(N) × terminal multiple

Valuation range

Fair band: ±10% around Intrinsic

Intrinsic

Price

LowFairHigh

Low boundary

98.39

Intrinsic

109.32

High boundary

120.25

The bar is visualized over ±30% around Intrinsic (for readability).

DCF projection table

Year	FCF	Discount factor	PV(FCF)
1	$106,000,000,000	0.9091	$96,363,636,364
2	$112,360,000,000	0.8264	$92,859,504,132
3	$119,101,600,000	0.7513	$89,482,794,891
4	$126,247,696,000	0.6830	$86,228,875,077
5	$133,822,557,760	0.6209	$83,093,279,619
Terminal Value (undiscounted)			$2,007,338,366,400

Disclaimer: informational only, not investment advice. Results are highly sensitive to assumptions.

Step 7 — Market expectations (Reverse DCF)

Instead of asking "What is fair value?", we ask: What must happen for today's price to be fair. We solve the DCF backwards.

Market-implied FCF growth

26.6%

Reverse DCF: growth that matches market EV (given your discount rate + terminal multiple)

Market enterprise value (EV)

$3,808,970,000,000

Market cap + net debt

DCF EV at implied growth

$3,808,972,153,850

Model EV at the implied growth rate

Implied vs your base growth

26.6% vs 6.0%

Market expectations vs your Step 3 assumption

FCF growth (implied vs benchmarks)

Scale: 0.0% → 26.6%

History: 6.0%

Benchmark: 12.0%

Implied: 26.6%

Benchmarks: GLOBAL • mean 6.0% / p90 12.0%

This is not a "buy/sell" signal. It only shows what the market price already assumes about the future.

Step 8 — Justification gap (Interpretation)

We translate implied expectations into a reality check: what the company and the macro environment must deliver for the price to make sense.

The stock implies roughly 26.6% annual FCF growth over 5 years. That sits at the high end of assumptions (mean 6.0%, p90 12.0%). Expectations are balanced on our scale (index 2.00). Sensitivity: ≈9% EV impact on a ~10% growth miss.

What must go right

Sustained growth with limited margin compression.
Durable competitive position to defend returns.
Capital discipline to keep cash conversion high.

Expectation regime

balanced

Index: 2.00 (sum of axes)

Fragility (EV drop on ~10% growth miss)

9.4%

Sensitivity of EV to a modest growth shortfall

Step 9 — Expectation Index (Regime)

We score how extreme the implied assumptions are relative to benchmarks. This is an expectations regime — not timing advice.

Expectation regime

Balanced expectations• 2.00

Index is the sum of four axes (growth, duration, fragility, margin when enabled).

Growth axis

Extreme (+)

Value 26.6% vs mean 6.0% and p90 12.0%.

Fragility axis

Neutral

EV sensitivity: 9% drop (warn 20%, severe 35%).

Duration axis

Neutral

No duration benchmark available.

Margin axis

Neutral

Margin axis not enabled (MVP).

How to read this

We compare the growth the market is implicitly pricing against benchmarks (global, sector, or ticker-specific). A high implied growth relative to benchmarks suggests euphoric expectations; a low implied growth suggests pessimistic expectations.

Pessimistic expectationsBalanced expectationsEuphoric expectations

This is a thinking tool, not a buy/sell signal. Always validate assumptions.